State Bond Glut is Breaking Monetary Transmission

Excess supply of state government bonds is distorting markets, widening spreads, and choking the Reserve Bank’s monetary transmission.

Yield Scribe

September 3, 2025 at 7:40 AM IST

Nominal Weakness Tells the Real Story for RBI

Headline GDP growth flatters to deceive. Weak nominal expansion and tariff shocks mean the RBI must maintain an easing bias.

BasisPoint Insight

September 1, 2025 at 7:12 AM IST

iStock.com

Book Review

God Laughs, Markets Listen, and the Reddyisms that Still Resonate

From wit and ambiguity to humility and integrity, YV Reddy’s new book shows why values matter more than plans in an uncertain world.

Kalyan Ram

August 31, 2025 at 4:45 AM IST

Why Credit Growth Remains Tepid in India

Healthy balance sheets can’t offset muted demand as higher real rates and global headwinds weigh on investment appetite.

Rudra Sensarma

August 30, 2025 at 5:35 AM IST

File Photo

Does Climate Change Matter for Monetary Policy Decisions?

Climate shocks are reshaping inflation, growth, and financial stability. For the RBI, integrating climate risks into monetary policy is no longer optional.

Hemachandra Padhan

August 24, 2025 at 8:44 AM IST

iStock.com

Fed Enters RBI Debate as Singh Flags Global Linkages

BasisPoint Insight

August 21, 2025 at 2:44 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

RBI’s October Call Hinges on Transmission, Tariffs and a Swing Voter

August MPC minutes show caution but not closure. With Ranjan wavering, the RBI keeps cuts alive while waiting on data, tariffs, and transmission.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 20, 2025 at 2:42 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

India’s Bond Market Faces Harsh Reality as Fiscal Pressures Mount

GST rationalisation gives growth a fiscal lifeline but deepens deficit fears, leaving India’s bond market trapped in a “higher for longer” yield cycle.

Yield Scribe

August 19, 2025 at 4:00 AM IST

iStock.com

The RBI’s Curious Attachment to a Benchmark That Hardly Trades

The RBI’s liquidity panel sticks with WACR as its policy anchor, even though the market it reflects is shrinking fast. Reform? Or regulatory nostalgia?

R. Gurumurthy

August 8, 2025 at 6:43 AM IST

RBI Pauses, Rightly, But October May Cut Through Uncertainty

RBI holds repo with a neutral stance, but October policy could pivot if growth slows or tariffs bite.

N. Srinivasa Rao

August 7, 2025 at 12:39 PM IST

Interview

PM Adviser Sanyal Bats for Process Reforms, Plays Down Trump’s Jibes

Sanjeev Sanyal says India’s growth is intact, urges process reforms, and calls TCS layoffs part of healthy tech churn.

Krishnadevan V

August 7, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Growth Hopes Mask Limits of Policy Easing

The RBI’s optimism on growth belies structural weaknesses and hints that the impact of front-loaded rate cuts may already be waning.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 6, 2025 at 2:14 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

Monetary Policy in Graphic Detail

RBI hits pause on rate cuts as inflation rises and global risks grow. A visual dive into how policy, growth, credit, and liquidity are moving in Malhotra’s first pause.

Richard Fargose

August 6, 2025 at 1:33 PM IST

Monetary Policy Day and the Rent-a-View Economy

When the repo rate stays still, pundits pirouette. On Policy Day, the spectacle isn’t the decision, but the scramble to sound profound.

R. Gurumurthy

August 6, 2025 at 12:06 PM IST

AI Generated

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Premature Stance, Goalpost Shift May Haunt It on Growth

Trump’s tariff assault highlights why the RBI should have stayed accommodative, aiding transmission and preserving flexibility for future shocks.

Kalyan Ram

August 6, 2025 at 10:56 AM IST

AI Generated

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Inflation Vigil Misses Trade Storm Clouds

The central bank’s hawkish turn on core inflation ignores looming growth risks from Trump tariffs and slowing domestic demand.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 6, 2025 at 7:39 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Panel Recommends Retaining Weighted Average Call Rate as Policy Anchor

RBI’s internal group recommends retaining the weighted average call rate as the policy anchor, citing its strong correlation with money market rates and effective signal transmission.

BasisPoint Insight

August 6, 2025 at 7:15 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Glass Half Full, Half Tariff

Trump calls it a ‘dead economy’; the RBI governor answers with monsoon cheer, falling inflation and a festival season pitch for resilience.

BasisPoint Insight

August 6, 2025 at 6:42 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Maintains Rate, Stance; Inflation Projection Tempers Hope of Future Rate Cuts

A 4.9% inflation forecast for April-June 2026 dampens hopes of another rate cut and suggests neutral stance may persist

BasisPoint Insight

August 6, 2025 at 6:40 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Rate Cuts, Trade Shocks, and the Limits of Monetary Signalling

When monetary easing is not matched by credit traction, further rate cuts risk becoming ineffective. In a volatile global and domestic setting, the RBI must safeguard its credibility by acting only where it believes the real economy is ready to respond.

Srinath Sridharan

August 5, 2025 at 7:21 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Monetary Policy

RBI Unlikely to Cut Repo Rate as Focus Turns to Credit Transmission

With inflation cooling and liquidity ample, RBI is set to hold rates and wait for credit transmission before fresh policy moves.

K. Srinivasa Rao

August 4, 2025 at 3:44 AM IST

How Central Banks Jeopardised Their Independence

By expanding their own understanding of their mandate, monetary authorities became caught up in fiscal policy and triggered inflation, precisely what central-bank independence is intended to avert.

Otmar Issing

July 29, 2025 at 4:12 PM IST

US Federal Reserve

The European Central Bank's Monetary-Policy Revolution

In today’s world, it is unrealistic to expect central banks to maintain price stability at all times using conventional tools, particularly when doing so risks significant collateral damage and undermines public trust.

Marcel Fratzscher

July 29, 2025 at 7:52 AM IST

Norbert Nagel/WikiCommons

Through the Glass Darkly: Listing The Known Unknowns

As global risks mount, from volatility in the Russian oil supply to uncertainty over the future of the Fed chair, are we adequately prepared for the coming economic shocks?

Abheek Barua

July 23, 2025 at 10:02 AM IST

Federal Reserve

CRR Deserves More Respect Than Being Reduced to the “New Normal”

By normalising a lower CRR, the RBI risks trivialising a potent policy tool. Clarity, discipline and market signals could all be at stake.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 17, 2025 at 2:15 PM IST

iStock.com

Tariffs and Earnings Slowdown Threaten India’s Market Rally

Relief rally is losing steam as Trump tariffs, slowing profits, and weak policy space cast a shadow over India’s market valuations.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 15, 2025 at 2:42 AM IST

iStock.com/ sreeyashlohiya

Why RBI’s Call Money Benchmark Is Losing Relevance

RBI’s reliance on WACR as its policy anchor is misaligned with market realities. A shift to secured benchmarks like SORR is overdue.

Richard Fargose

July 10, 2025 at 8:49 AM IST

Monetary Transmission Is Both Alive And Dead Like Schrödinger’s Cat

Liquidity is plentiful, rates are low, yet credit growth is muted. Monetary transmission in India remains a paradox that defies easy solutions.

Yield Scribe

July 7, 2025 at 5:13 AM IST

iStock.com

Interview

Tata Or Batata? Nilesh Shah Lays Out India’s Market Mindmap

From HFT to FDI, inflation myths to rupee truth, Nilesh Shah maps India’s market future—in metaphors only he can mint.

BasisPoint Insight

June 26, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

AI Generated

Small Firms, Big Strain: RBI Study Shows Policy Transmission Is Uneven

A new RBI article confirms that monetary policy hits smaller firms harder. Balance sheets matter more than bond yields in driving investment.

BasisPoint Insight

June 25, 2025 at 3:13 PM IST

MPC Minutes Reveal Wobbly Logic Behind the Stance Shift

The June MPC minutes show a committee leaning hard into caution, but its reasoning for abandoning the accommodative stance reveals some puzzling dissonance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 21, 2025 at 4:23 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

Is India’s Current Monetary Policy Easing Cycle Over?

The MPC reverted to a neutral monetary policy stance in June, but a high real policy rate suggests that further easing is warranted to support growth amid subdued inflation and negative output gaps.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

June 14, 2025 at 12:43 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

"Did He Just Say That?" — A Critical Look At Central Bank Communication

Communication is not PR, it is policy. When central banks speak credibly, they can move economies without moving interest rates.

R. Gurumurthy

June 12, 2025 at 6:20 AM IST

iStock.com

A Hawkish 50bps Cut That Spooked The Bond Markets

The central bank’s bold monetary easing has done little to soothe markets, thanks to poor signalling, fears of liquidity tightening, and a muddled message on transmission.

Yield Scribe

June 11, 2025 at 5:20 AM IST

iStock.com/pixelfusion3d

The Monsoon’s Early Promise Is Not Yet A Policy Comfort

Monsoon’s early onset lifted hopes for growth and inflation, but its pause may call for policy caution as rainfall deficits widen.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 10, 2025 at 9:43 AM IST

iStock.com

A Vote Apart, Why Monetary Policy Needs Dissent

Dissent in the RBI’s rate-setting committee is not defiance. It is foresight. As policy turns bold, a lone voice may be asking the right questions.

Sujit Kumar and Rajendra Paramanik*

June 9, 2025 at 12:33 PM IST

iStock.com

RBI’s Abrupt Policy Shift Risks Undermining Its Own Credibility

Markets do not fear rate cuts or hikes. They fear a central bank that shifts stance and floods the system with liquidity before the economy is ready.

Kalyan Ram

June 6, 2025 at 3:09 PM IST

Screengrab from RBI Press Conference

RBI Pushes For Better Rate Transmission, But Structural Frictions Persist

RBI steps up easing with rate and CRR cuts, but uneven liquidity, sticky bank rates, and cautious lending slow real transmission to the economy.

Richard Fargose

June 6, 2025 at 2:49 PM IST

Photo by Patrick Hendry on Unsplash

Monetary Intent And Content Matter, Not Just The Mic

Authority and influence in central banking are earned through judgement, not decibels.

Srinath Sridharan

June 6, 2025 at 12:47 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Frontloads Hyper Accommodation

The RBI’s frontloaded stimulus lifts markets, but its ability to revive growth is constrained by weak income, tepid investment, and global drag.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 6, 2025 at 10:38 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI’s New Dharma: Bold Cuts, Balanced Stance

With its bold cuts in repo rate and CRR, and the shift in stance, the RBI has tried to play its role in pushing growth but has a contingency plan, should things go wrong.

Abheek Barua

June 6, 2025 at 9:49 AM IST

RBI

No Mic For Deputy Governor Gupta In RBI’s Monetary Opera

India’s newest monetary policymaker sat silent through a blockbuster policy. Poonam Gupta’s RBI debut came and went, with barely a word.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 6, 2025 at 8:13 AM IST

Screengrab of RBI press conference

Monetary Policy

Operation Frontload: RBI Fires All Weapons, Then Calls For Peace

RBI unleashed a surprise rate-and-liquidity barrage, then changed stance to neutral. Was this pre-emption, or a response to unseen threats?

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 6, 2025 at 7:26 AM IST

PIB

Monetary Policy

RBI Surprises With 50 bps Rate Cut, But Signals Long Pause Ahead

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to shift its stance to neutral from accommodative signals that the door to further cuts remains open but the threshold to cut again has risen.

BasisPoint Insight

June 6, 2025 at 4:46 AM IST

Monetary Policy Or Market Theatre? When Headlines Front-Run The RBI

Overconfident headlines and speculative forecasts risk distorting monetary policy deliberations and undermining institutional credibility.

Srinath Sridharan

June 2, 2025 at 8:20 AM IST

IStock.com

Monetary Policy In A Schrödinger’s Economy

RBI must tread carefully in a Schrödinger’s economy, where outcomes stay indeterminate until observed, demanding reactive policy moves.

Vivek Kumar

June 2, 2025 at 6:41 AM IST

India’s Growth Pops, But RBI Still Has Reasons To Cut Rates

A 7.4% GDP print in January–March 2025 flatters India’s outlook. With consumption weak and real rates high, RBI can still ease to lift growth.

Yield Scribe

June 1, 2025 at 5:59 AM IST

Interview

Rangarajan Says India Must Not Dilute 3% Fiscal Deficit Cap

Rangarajan warns against replacing India’s 3% deficit anchor, saying it risks crowding out private investment and raising interest rates.

Kalyan Ram

May 30, 2025 at 4:40 PM IST

RBI Need Not Rush To 5% As Liquidity Does The Heavy-Lifting

The RBI has uncoupled its stance from liquidity. That may make aggressive rate cuts less likely, even if monetary conditions stay easy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 19, 2025 at 5:56 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Soft CPI Anchors Rate Cut Hopes, Narrows Path To 5.00% Terminal

April’s disinflation surprise resets the debate around where the rate cycle ends and how soon it gets there

Richard Fargose

May 14, 2025 at 2:03 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

RBI’s ‘Stance’ Is Still Standing; But Should It Be Retired For Good?

The RBI clings to its ambiguous stance on monetary policy. In a world demanding clarity, is it still useful, or merely an obstacle to transparency?

Abheek Barua

May 8, 2025 at 1:32 AM IST

Policy Rate Cuts Cannot Flow Freely With High Savings Scheme Rates

High small savings rates are distorting financial signals, muting policy transmission, and placing an avoidable burden on government finances.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 6, 2025 at 1:13 PM IST

Via WikiCommons

LAF, SDF, MSF - Gupta’s Learning Curve Begins With ABCs Of WACR Vs SORR

The new RBI deputy governor takes charge amid a fluid framework and the push to convert surplus liquidity into transmission. It is more than the alphabet soup of acronyms that confronts her.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 3, 2025 at 4:25 AM IST

Poonam Gupta Takes Charge As RBI Deputy Governor, To Oversee Monetary Policy

Poonam Gupta’s tenure begins as the RBI undertakes a crucial review of its liquidity management framework.

BasisPoint Insight

May 2, 2025 at 9:15 AM IST

Interview

RBI Has Ample Room To Cut Rates Further, Says MPC’s Saugata Bhattacharya

RBI models showed repo rate at 5.1-5.7%. The MPC member says he leans more towards the lower end of that range.

Rajesh Mahapatra

May 2, 2025 at 4:22 AM IST

Liquidity: Sterilisation, Caution, Or Doubling Down?

FX book chickens come home to roost in 2025-26, and the RBI’s liquidity injections may need to grow even larger to avoid a fresh policy transmission hiccup.

Vivek Kumar

May 1, 2025 at 3:49 AM IST

RBI’s Dovish Turn Comes With A Built-In Speed Bump

The April minutes cement the RBI’s pivot to growth, but Bhattacharya’s caveats point to a stop-start easing path—one markets are willing to live with.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 23, 2025 at 2:16 PM IST

Growth Trumps Inflation in RBI’s April Minutes

With global shocks mounting, MPC minutes reveal deep concern over India’s growth path. Rate cut, dovish stance and liquidity flood now fully explained.

BasisPoint Insight

April 23, 2025 at 1:14 PM IST

Dancing With Doubt: When The MPC Abandons Certainty For Growth

As Trump’s tariff flip flop continues, the RBI embraces uncertainty with a pivot to dovishness, cutting rates and shifting stance.

Phynix

April 10, 2025 at 3:22 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism Hinges On Questionable Insular Assumptions

Despite warning of trade risks, the central bank proceeds as if India’s economy exists in a vacuum

Dhananjay Sinha

April 9, 2025 at 1:54 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism On Growth Belies Tariff Undercurrent

The central bank’s inflation optimism is justified, but its 2025–26 growth forecast feels increasingly out of touch with trade war disruptions.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 9:28 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Chooses Growth Over Inflation As Tariff War Clouds Intensify

The RBI’s shift to an accommodative stance signals a growth-first approach, but its crisis response still feels too mild for the storm brewing.

Abheek Barua

April 9, 2025 at 7:46 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Monetary Policy

RBI Goes All In On Dovishness, Outdoes Most Dovish Of Pundits

The central bank has done everything the market hoped—and more. What matters now is how far ahead the market decides to run.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 5:46 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

RBI Steps Up Easing Cycle with Another 25 bps Rate Cut, Stance Accommodative

RBI's move reflects the MPC’s view that inflation risks have moderated and that there is a need to address domestic growth amid global uncertainties.

BasisPoint Insight

April 9, 2025 at 5:04 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Monetary Policy

RBI Must Resist Calls To Reopen The Fixed Rate Repo Window

Calls to revive the fixed repo window are gaining ground. The RBI must resist — or risk undoing a decade of hard-won liquidity discipline.

Basis Pundit

April 7, 2025 at 2:44 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Seen Cutting Repo Rate By 25 Bps As Easing Cycle Gains Momentum

Most analysts anticipate a cumulative repo rate reduction of at least 75 bps by March 2026 if inflation remains within the target band.

BasisPoint Insight

April 7, 2025 at 11:45 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Be The Front Soldier After Trump Trade Shock

A seismic tariff shock from the US on April 9 could hijack India’s economic prospects. While this requires a strategic government intervention for risk mitigation, the RBI must be the front soldier to safeguard growth.

Vivek Kumar

April 6, 2025 at 7:59 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Reciprocal Tariffs: Brace For Impact

Should the RBI and indeed all central banks see the current situation as primarily an inflation problem or a growth problem?

Abheek Barua

April 4, 2025 at 7:44 AM IST

Monetary Policy

High Credit-Deposit Ratio Will Dent All RBI Attempts At Rate Transmission

Banks have already committed the bulk of their deposit base to lending, leaving little operational flexibility.

Richard Fargose

March 28, 2025 at 1:44 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Monetary Policy

Fed Pause Gives RBI Breathing Room As Malhotra Weighs Next Move

With Powell unsure and Malhotra new at the helm, the Fed’s pause may buy RBI time to tread carefully amid global and domestic flux.

R. Gurumurthy

March 23, 2025 at 6:15 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Monetary Policy

New Governor Sees Small Space, Squeezes In Rate Cut

Malhotra may have steered the committee towards a cut more for solace than substance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 10, 2025 at 3:40 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

Will RBI’s Acquiescence To Rate-Cut Demand Work?

India’s growth revival deserves structural policy redressal rather than counter-cyclical monetary easing.

Dhananjay Sinha

February 7, 2025 at 1:02 PM IST

Monetary Policy

Malhotra Cuts Repo Rate By 25 BPS In First MPC Meeting, Follows Predecessors

In their first meetings, Malhotra’s predecessors—Shaktikanta Das and Urjit Patel—had also reduced repo rates.

Richard Fargose

February 7, 2025 at 5:20 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy Can’t Take Up The Government’s Slack To Boost Economic Growth

The narrative of reforms in India over the past five years has largely remained just that—a narrative. September 2019 was the last when the central government undertook serious economic measure when it reduced corporate tax rates. Prior to that was the rollout of GST in July 2017. Economy now needs more than just past reforms.

BasisPoint Groupthink

January 30, 2025 at 9:13 AM IST

The Bureau

GST Overhaul Seen Adding 0.7-0.8% to GDP this Year

India Bets on SCO to Blunt the Edge of US Tariffs and Sanctions

Fed Cut Hopes and Trump’s Japan Tariff Rollback Lift Market Sentiment

Setting the Record Straight on Trump’s India Rant

Nominal Weakness Tells the Real Story for RBI

Setback for Trump Tariffs in US Court, Hope for Traders

India’s Economy Expands 7.8% in June Quarter, Highest in Five Quarters

Trump Tests the Guardrails of US Credibility

Market Makers

Sarci-Sense: About Silent Goodbyes & How Middle-Age Friendships Disappear

iStock.com

Book Review

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